The Indian rupee rebounded 50 paise from its all-time closing low to settle at 96.36 against the US dollar, driven by retreating crude oil prices, signs of easing geopolitical friction, and likely central bank intervention.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the Sensex tumbling over 1,300 points, driven by escalating crude oil prices due to US-Iran tensions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for austerity measures, which amplified investor concerns about India's economic outlook.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have seen their fourth increase in less than two weeks, pushing cumulative hikes to nearly Rs 7.5 per litre since May 15, reaching their highest levels since May 2022. This surge, driven by global crude oil costs and the Iran conflict, is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures and raise transportation costs across the economy.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
'Once the currency goes out of the hand, then possibly your major challenge is that it will not come back.'
India's Central government is likely to see its fertiliser subsidy bill double to a record 3.4 trillion in FY27, up from the Budget estimate of 1.7 trillion, due to surging global fertiliser prices exacerbated by the West Asia war. This significant increase, coupled with revenue losses from excise duty cuts for oil-marketing companies, is straining the government's fiscal space, though capital expenditure plans remain unchanged.
The case for long-term investment in gold, however, remains intact.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the central bank is closely monitoring whether the supply shock from the West Asia conflict will lead to a generalised price rise, potentially necessitating monetary policy action.
Shareholder payouts by India Inc, including dividends and buybacks, increased by 2.2 per cent year-on-year in FY26 to $5.06 trillion, but this growth lagged the 18.8 per cent rise in reported net profit for the third consecutive year, leading to the lowest dividend payout ratio in 12 years.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased for the second time in a week, following a long freeze on revisions. The increase comes as global crude prices surge and state-run oil firms look to recoup losses.
Fuel prices have risen by about Rs 7.5 per litre since May 15, as global crude oil prices surged due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia and supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.
The Sri Lankan government attributes the sharp depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, citing increased costs for essential imports like gas, fertiliser, and oil.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed marginally lower due to profit-taking, following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged while lowering its growth expectations for the current fiscal year and forecasting higher inflation.
Moody's Ratings has highlighted that Indian banks are among the most exposed in the Asia-Pacific region to the West Asia crisis, primarily due to India's high dependence on energy imports, which could lead to increased inflation, higher interest rates, and strained borrower cash flows.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 62,853 crore from Indian equities in the first fortnight of June, bringing the total outflows for 2026 to Rs 2.87 lakh crore, surpassing the entire 2025 figure, driven by geopolitical tensions, global economic growth concerns, and a weakening rupee.
Moody's Ratings has reduced India's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 6 per cent, citing subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity due to higher energy costs and global uncertainties.
Are there many who can pass up a meal of Chole Bhature? Very few right! Chef Roopa Nabar's Amritsari Chole is probably quite different from the recipe you might usually prepare.
As the rupee weakens, wealthy families are accelerating investments in global assets.
'OMCs are incurring losses of Rs 1,000 crore per day due to the West Asia crisis.'
State-owned Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL), which operates India's strategic crude oil storage, will make awards by December to lease around 1 million tons of crude oil storage space (7.3 million barrels) at two of the country's three existing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), around a fifth of the total SPR capacity. This will enable the refilling of crude caverns even as escalating hostilities in the Gulf threaten disruptions in crude supplies, two industry sources said.
Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by Rs 3 per litre each, marking the first hike in over four years, as state-run fuel retailers pass on some of the impact from surging global crude prices, which have been exacerbated by the Iran war.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the central government have introduced a package of measures, including tax exemptions for FPIs on government securities and a concessional foreign-exchange swap facility, aiming to attract up to $50 billion in foreign capital. This initiative is designed to strengthen India's balance of payments and potentially cover the projected BoP gap for FY27.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reported a significant 52 per cent year-on-year increase in gains from foreign exchange transactions, reaching 1.69 trillion in FY26. This surge occurred despite the central bank selling a gross $195 billion in the spot market to manage rupee volatility, which saw a 9.85 per cent depreciation.
'In all these years of rupee depreciation, of rising oil prices, of inflation caused by import dependence, not one leader had the courage to look the people in the eye and say: Please do this for your country.'
Assam has become the first state in India to directly venture into oil production, following the discovery of hydrocarbons at the Namrup-Borhat block.
The Indian rupee depreciated by 28 paise to settle at 93.44 against the US dollar, influenced by ongoing uncertainties surrounding West Asia peace negotiations, volatile crude oil prices, and the Reserve Bank of India's recent adjustments to non-deliverable forward market regulations.
The vessels are carrying around 92,600 metric tonnes of LPG and have 33 and 27 Indian seafarers onboard, respectively. Visuals showed Pine Gas crossing the critical chokepoint.
Overseas travel spending by Indians, including holiday trips, decreased by $212.43 million to $1.09 billion in March compared to February, according to the Reserve Bank of India's latest data.
India will send a technical team to the United States and Japan to prepare a blueprint for building strategic oil reserves for the 70 per cent import-dependant country as an insurance against contingencies like disruption of supplies.\n\n\n\n
'The MPC is likely to prioritise the key mandate, which is inflation, while relying on other instruments to stabilise the currency and bond markets.'
'Even last year, when India bought gold, the physical quantity was much less than the previous years.'
United States Senator Lindsey Graham on Sunday claimed that Indian Ambassador to the US Vinay Mohan Kwatra spoke to him last month about India buying less Russian oil and asked him to tell President Donald Trump to relieve the 25 per cent tariff.
The Indian rupee plummeted to an all-time low of 95.80 against the US dollar, settling at 95.66, driven by elevated crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, despite potential RBI intervention and import curbs on gold.
India will consult with the United States on building a 45-day strategic oil reserve, Oil Minister Ram Naik told reporters on Tuesday.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that India's economy is projected to return to a 7 per cent-plus growth trajectory by 2027-28 (FY28), or sooner if external conditions improve, despite near-term challenges from the West Asia crisis.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is impacting lifestyles worldwide, from reduced gold purchases in India to energy conservation in Europe and Japan, as governments urge citizens to adapt to the global energy shock.
Why would a country that requires close to $90 billion in net foreign capital annually to create jobs, build productive capacity, and sustain rapid growth permit $30 billion of capital to flow abroad, thereby contributing to pressure on the rupee? asks Debashis Basu.
India's banking system is grappling with a persistent liquidity surplus exceeding Rs 5 trillion, driven by significant government spending and bond redemptions, leading market participants to anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will step up Variable Rate Reserve Repo operations to manage the excess funds.
