Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
India's wholesale price inflation surged to 3.88 per cent in March, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase, primarily driven by a sharp rise in crude petroleum, natural gas, and manufactured items amidst the West Asia crisis.
Indian markets on Dalal Street rallied sharply as easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict and stable oil prices boosted sentiment. Track Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
The US government, under President Trump, justifies the intervention as a security necessity rather than a resource grab. The primary official reasons include: narco-terrorism charges, national security and migration crisis.
Both Houses of Parliament were adjourned sine die, concluding a Budget session marked by the passage of key legislations and the defeat of a Constitution amendment bill on women's reservation. The session saw frequent opposition protests and discussions on various issues, including the West Asia conflict.
S&P Global Ratings warns that a sustained rise in crude oil prices to $130 per barrel could significantly slow India's economic growth, weaken fiscal metrics, and strain corporate and banking sector performance, potentially reducing growth by up to 80 basis points.
Around one full month of supply is firmly arranged with additional procurement being continuously finalised, and oil companies are successfully delivering over 5 million cylinders every day.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
The initial cost of the reserve, expected to become operational by 2012, was estimated at Rs 2,400 crore (Rs 24 billion), excluding the cost of crude oil. Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd, special purpose vehicle that is implementing the project, has asked Engineers India Ltd to work on the revised cost," said sources. EIL is the management consultant for this project.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil price fluctuations, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will significantly influence the Indian equity market this week.
S&P Global Ratings warns that Indian oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL may face reduced profit margins due to rising crude oil prices and government pressure to maintain stable retail prices.
The ongoing West Asia conflict is expected to severely impact the supply of affordable housing in India, as rising input costs further erode already thin developer margins. Fluctuations in crude oil and gas prices, coupled with higher freight costs, are driving up prices of essential construction materials like cement and steel, making new projects increasingly unviable for developers.
A substantial deposit of petroleum and natural gas has been discovered in Pakistan's territorial waters, a cache so large its exploitation could change the country's destiny, according to a media report. A three-year survey was undertaken in collaboration with a friendly country to verify the presence of the oil and gas reserves, DawnNewsTV quoted a senior security official as saying on Friday.
The Indian stock market is poised for a volatile week, influenced by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, crucial global macroeconomic data, and the escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, according to market analysts.
The Indian rupee rebounded against the US dollar following intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, amidst ongoing concerns about foreign capital outflows, rising crude oil prices, and geopolitical instability.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed Parliament on the West Asia crisis, advocating for dialogue and diplomacy, ensuring the safety of Indians in the region, and addressing concerns about fuel and food security.
The Indian rupee experienced a significant surge against the US dollar following the Reserve Bank of India's measures to restrict banks from onshore forward markets. Despite this, the rupee remains under pressure from foreign capital outflows, a strong dollar, and rising crude oil prices.
India's retail inflation marginally increased to 3.4 per cent in March, up from 3.21 per cent in February, primarily due to an uptick in certain food items and the initial impact of the West Asia crisis on fuel prices, according to government data.
Calling such reports baseless, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said there was no such move under consideration.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
US President Donald Trump announced a deal with Pakistan to develop its oil reserves, suggesting Pakistan might sell oil to India in the future.
'I cannot imagine that any NSA before Ajit Doval would have given us this kind of time and this kind of engagement. They would have offered slogans, or nothing at all. That, too, tells you something.'
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
'The March correction was clearly due to the war and with prospects of that coming to a conclusion, there is a natural rally.'
Indian stock markets recovered from early losses to close higher, driven by value buying in IT and banking shares and a rebound in the rupee.
Saudi Arabia, which has the world's largest oil reserves, has said that it may increase its stock by around 200 billion barrels and was also mulling investment in building refineries in India among other countries.
State-owned Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL), which operates India's strategic crude oil storage, will make awards by December to lease around 1 million tons of crude oil storage space (7.3 million barrels) at two of the country's three existing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), around a fifth of the total SPR capacity. This will enable the refilling of crude caverns even as escalating hostilities in the Gulf threaten disruptions in crude supplies, two industry sources said.
The discovery has boosted morale of officials of the State-run Bangladesh Oil, Gas and Mineral Corporation (Petrobangla), the parent company of Bapex, who are hoping that other oil fields may be found in similar gas fields across the country.
The petroleum ministry on Friday reaffirmed the government's commitment to maintaining stable petrol and diesel prices, despite India's high dependence on imports.
Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has announced an economic relief package to mitigate the impact of the West Asia conflict, including fuel price reductions and support from India for petrol and diesel supplies.
The rupee plunged to a fresh low of 93.72 against the dollar on Friday, falling 1.15 per cent in a single session - its sharpest one-day decline since February 24, 2022 - as elevated crude oil prices and strong dollar demand from oil-marketing companies and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) weighed on the currency.
Gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop in the national capital due to a global selloff driven by inflation concerns, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has proposed a 20-point policy agenda to the finance ministry, including a conflict-linked emergency credit line guarantee scheme and tax rationalisation on energy inputs, to support MSMEs, exporters, and energy-intensive industries affected by the ongoing West Asia war.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
The Indian rupee weakened to a record intra-day low against the US dollar due to a strengthening greenback, continuous foreign capital outflows, and elevated global crude oil prices amidst the West Asia conflict.
Donald Trump has warned Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face military action, escalating tensions amid regional conflict and impacting global oil supplies.
Both sides have now revealed a preference for escalation over strategic defeat, and each new provocation narrows the space for the next pause. The Touska seizure, Iran's refusal to negotiate under blockade, Israel's strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure -- all of these add up to an increasingly untenable situation. This makes the wild card -- Trump and his motormouth -- more consequential than ever, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
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